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track makes Hurricane Dorian a big shift north

8/31/2019
the 8 a.m. advisory is in for Dorian and it shows that the storm is continuing to strengthen out over the ocean winds of 145 miles per hour it's currently moving west at about 12 Meyers miles per hour and the pressure down to 944 millibars the lower that number gets the stronger that core of the storm so watches and see what it does is we go throughout the rest of the day we do have hurricane warnings in effect for the northern Bahamas we also have hurricane watches in effect for western parts of the islands the warning means that conditions are likely in the next 36 hours for hurricane conditions
track makes Hurricane Dorian a big shift north
so winds greater than 74 miles per hour and the watch means that conditions are favorable they could happen the next couple of days so that is only for the Bahamas we are not seeing any types of watches or warnings for Florida yet we could start to see those in the next couple of hours or days as the storm continues to progress to the west so here's a satellite imagery you can see a very healthy looking storm you can see the eye in the center again it's moving towards the west at 12 miles per hour we expect to continue to see it move towards the west before it makes a turn up the coast show will show you the track continuing as a major hurricane that's a category 4 storm over.

the next couple of days and the current forecast track has the storm sitting off of the South Florida coast on Tuesday morning as a category 4 storm winds at 130 miles per hour and then it has it making its way to the north now the center of the track does not make a landfall on Florida but that does not mean it will not make a landfall you can see the cone of uncertainty still spans a majority of the state and it does have it moving to the north continuing to decrease once it starts interacting with land it's going to lose some of that fuel and it's going to decrease in strength which is a good thing and the current forecast track does have it moving towards the north and as you can see South Carolina is in the cone of uncertainty but the cone is just that it is very uncertain what will happen with this storm it continued to stay off to sea or it could make landfall in Florida and dissipate from there we just don't know quite yet.

so we're gonna keep an eye on it if it were to move up towards the Midlands or the South Carolina we wouldn't start feeling any impacts till Tuesday night Wednesday at the earliest so we do have a couple of days to watch the storm and see how it progresses now here's the spaghetti plots these are all the different models and their solution to where the center of the storm is going to be you can see they're in a pretty tight agreement down here at the next couple of days they're very close together so it's a good idea it's gonna continue moving to the west and you can see we've overlaid the National Hurricane track on that as well.

so they are agreeing with what it's going to continue to move west over the next couple of days after that it gets a little more fishy's have some models continuing to push it into Florida others keep it well off to sea so again a lot of uncertainty with this track as these spaghetti plots continue to move east through the chance does go down for a landfall here in the US so we want these spaghetti plots to continue pushing East that would be a good sign but even if the storm stays right off the coast we could still be dealing with heavy rain along the coastal storm surge as well as strong winds so the impact spread much wider than this cone or any of these spaghetti plots are going to show us over the next couple of days so we're going to continue to watch the trends of these spaghetti plots and see what happens as we go over the next couple of days.

so let's break it down we'll talk about a couple models we'll start with the GFS again this is just one potential solution of what could happen by Monday at noon it has it off the Florida coast and you can see it's up to the northeast side of the cone of uncertainty so I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see this cone shift towards the east over the next couple of hours with the next updates as we head into Tuesday afternoon the storm stays off the Florida coast providing summary into the coast and some strong winds but again not making a landfall and then this model continues to push it up into the Carolinas and ride the coast a little bit until it moves its way offshore and again this is only one model this is not what could happen by any means.

so we'll compare another model this is the European model we talked about these two opposing models a lot will set this forward into Monday afternoon we'll stop at 11:30 just about noon it has it a little slower and a little farther south so southern Florida that would be the area that would be experiencing the rain on Monday morning continuing to then push it to the north but again the European model is slightly slower with this storm and then by it Wednesday afternoon it keeps it just off the Georgia Florida coast over near Jacksonville before pushing it up along the Carolina coast again.

so again no matter where the storm hits everyone along the coast needs to be prepared for heavy rains gusty winds and potential storm surge over the next couple of days until we can really nail down where this storm and the biggest impacts are going to affect now chance of hurricane-force winds over the next couple of days are greatest along the Florida coast especially down towards West Palm Beach at about a forty-five percent it's not a not it's not a zero chance of seeing hurricane-force winds but it is still very low chance for Hilton Head and Charleston will continue to see if that increases over.
the next couple of days now tropical-storm-force winds these are winds 35 to 74 miles per hour we have a greater chance of seeing these again West Palm Beach looks to be going to experience some of these winds the greatest known as you head your way up the coast Hill and head out a 55 percent chance Charleston at a 47 percent chance.

so again we are going to be experiencing some gusty winds if you live along the coast potentially even in the Midlands as we look ahead towards next week we could see some gusty winds as well and as always it's still a little far out so we are gonna continue to watch you need to pay attention to reliable sources will always keep you updated here at WL TX and everyone in the southeast needs to watch closely we still cannot pinpoint an exact place that's going to experience the worst of this storm so everyone should have a plan in place and finally the forecast is going to continue to change so we'll continue to update you on-air and online

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